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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
4 – 2
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
12/5/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska53%
×Draw22%
Wiązownica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.96
Wiązownica
1.28

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 53% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 70 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
75%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Wiązownica
78%
Draw or Wiązownica
47%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
31%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
86%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
58%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
31%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
72%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
37%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
68%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
53%
level
22%
Wiązownica scores more
25%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 4 – 2 Wiązownica

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Wiązownica 4-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.