Podbrezová 3–0 Slavoj Trebišov: Result & Stats

Podbrezová

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slavoj Trebišov

9/14/2019

2. liga · Round 8ZELPO Aréna Podbrezová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Podbrezová68%

×Draw18%

Slavoj Trebišov13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbrezováExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.91

Podbrezová

2.31

Slavoj Trebišov

0.91

Podbrezová creates 154% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 69 away

2.61

creates per match

0.97

0.85

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Podbrezová

2.61

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

Podbrezová

0.85

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbrezová+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbrezová ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Podbrezová or draw

87%

Podbrezová or Slavoj Trebišov

82%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

32%

Winning margin

Podbrezová wins by 2+

45%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Podbrezová 1+ goals

90%

Podbrezová 2+ goals

67%

Podbrezová 3+ goals

40%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

60%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

23%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Podbrezová (draw refunded)

84%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbrezová at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.85 · 41 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbrezová attack 2.61 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.31

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Podbrezová defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Podbrezová scores more

68%

level

18%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

13%

Podbrezová at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff