Poblense 3–0 Santanyí: Result & Stats

Poblense

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santanyí

9/8/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Poblense62%

×Draw22%

Santanyí16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoblenseExpected goals in this matchSantanyí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.83

Poblense

1.86

Santanyí

0.83

Poblense creates 124% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 113 away

2.31

creates per match

1.17

0.49

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Poblense

2.31

Santanyí

1.17

allows per match

Poblense

0.49

Santanyí

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par

Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

Santanyí →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Poblense or draw

84%

Poblense or Santanyí

78%

Draw or Santanyí

38%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+

36%

Santanyí wins by 2+

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals

84%

Poblense 2+ goals

55%

Poblense 3+ goals

28%

Santanyí 1+ goals

56%

Santanyí 2+ goals

20%

Santanyí 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)

79%

Santanyí (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.86

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Poblense scores more

62%

level

22%

Santanyí scores more

16%

Poblense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff