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Plzen vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Teplice
Teplice
4/30/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Plzen55%
×Draw22%
Teplice22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.90
Teplice
1.12

Plzen creates 70% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Teplice
1.04

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Teplice
1.57

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Teplice+0.16scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Teplice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
78%
Plzen or Teplice
78%
Draw or Teplice
45%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
32%
Teplice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
85%
Plzen 2+ goals
56%
Plzen 3+ goals
29%
Teplice 1+ goals
67%
Teplice 2+ goals
31%
Teplice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
71%
Teplice (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Teplice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.90

Teplice attack 1.04 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Plzen scores more
55%
level
22%
Teplice scores more
22%

Plzen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Teplice

Plzen and Teplice drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.