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Plzen vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
Preview
14:00
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
11/7/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Doosan Arena
Big match
48%
Plzen
model favours
48%23%29%

Sparta Praha score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen48%
×Draw23%
Sparta Praha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.84
Sparta Praha
1.39

Plzen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Sparta Praha
1.57

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Sparta Praha
1.46

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
71%
Plzen or Sparta Praha
77%
Draw or Sparta Praha
52%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
26%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
84%
Plzen 2+ goals
55%
Plzen 3+ goals
28%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
75%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
40%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
62%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Plzen scores more
48%
level
23%
Sparta Praha scores more
29%

Plzen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Plzen 3 vs Sparta Praha 2
  • Sparta Praha win just 58% against the top half (vs 88% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Plzen
Possession-dominant
Sparta Praha
Possession-dominant
53%Possession60%
77%Pass accuracy79%
11.2Shots11.5
1.81xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlzenSparta Praha

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Plzen
3
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
0–00–01–22–04–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plzen
WLDDW
Praha
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plzen vs Sparta Praha — Match Preview

Plzen face Sparta Praha on November 7, 2026 in this Czech Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plzen host Sparta Praha at Doosan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.