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Plzen vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
3/30/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 26Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen62%
×Draw21%
Slovan Liberec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.08
Slovan Liberec
1.00

Plzen creates 108% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Slovan Liberec
0.80

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Slovan Liberec
1.93

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Slovan Liberec+0.09on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
83%
Plzen or Slovan Liberec
79%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
38%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
38%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
87%
Plzen 2+ goals
61%
Plzen 3+ goals
34%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
63%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
26%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
78%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Plzen scores more
62%
level
21%
Slovan Liberec scores more
17%

Plzen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Plzen 1–3 Slovan Liberec

Slovan Liberec beat Plzen 3-1 in Czech Liga on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.