Plzen 0–2 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Liberec

J. Pešek 90+3'

I. Rondić 52'

2/6/2021

Czech Liga · Round 18Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Plzen59%

×Draw21%

Slovan Liberec20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.11

Plzen

2.04

Slovan Liberec

1.11

Plzen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.23

creates per match

0.89

1.34

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Plzen

2.23

Slovan Liberec

0.89

allows per match

Plzen

1.34

Slovan Liberec

1.84

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.27scores more

Slovan Liberec+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

80%

Plzen or Slovan Liberec

79%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

41%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

35%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

87%

Plzen 2+ goals

60%

Plzen 3+ goals

33%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

67%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

30%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

74%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.84 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.23 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.04

Slovan Liberec attack 0.89 + Plzen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plzen scores more

59%

level

21%

Slovan Liberec scores more

20%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua

29'

Martin Koscelník

42'

Filip Kaša

44'

M. Rabušic← M. Sadílek

46'

V. Míka← J. Kayamba

52'

I. Rondić↳ J. Pešek

53'

Zdeněk Ondrášek

62'

K. Mara← M. Pourzitidis

66'

Kamso Mara

74'

O. Mihálik← D. Ba Loua

74'

J. Beauguel← Z. Ondrášek

85'

L. Matějka← D. Limberský

89'

Ondrej Karafiat

90'

Michal Fukala

90+3'

J. Pešek

Shots

Statistics

PlzenSlovan

Overview

9Total Shots12

12Corners0

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target6

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1