Plzen 1–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

P. Šulc 87'

4/14/2024

Czech Liga · Round 28Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen43%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.41

Plzen

1.63

Slavia Praha

1.41

Plzen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

2.22

creates per match

1.61

1.20

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Plzen

2.22

Slavia Praha

1.61

allows per match

Plzen

1.20

Slavia Praha

1.03

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more

Slavia Praha+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

67%

Plzen or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

57%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

22%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

80%

Plzen 2+ goals

48%

Plzen 3+ goals

22%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

41%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

56%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Slavia Praha defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Slavia Praha attack 1.61 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plzen scores more

43%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

33%

Plzen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. Hranáč

Plzen · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

Lukáš Provod

37'

Lukáš Kalvach

46'

C. Zafeiris← L. Provod

61'

Pavel ŠulcGoal cancelled

66'

Christos Zafeiris

66'

L. Masopust← O. Zmrzlý

67'

E. Diouf← V. Jurečka

72'

M. Jurásek← P. Ševčík

74'

77'

79'

87'

88'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlzenSlavia

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots12

5Corners8

8Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots12

2On Target1

5Off Target7

5Blocked4

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

289Total Passes396

199Accurate Passes300

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1