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Plzen vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
10/27/2019Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen43%
×Draw24%
Slavia Praha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.64
Slavia Praha
1.41

Plzen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Slavia Praha
1.62

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Slavia Praha
1.05

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
67%
Plzen or Slavia Praha
76%
Draw or Slavia Praha
57%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
22%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
81%
Plzen 2+ goals
49%
Plzen 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
41%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
57%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.64

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plzen scores more
43%
level
24%
Slavia Praha scores more
33%

Plzen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 1-0 in Czech Liga on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.