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Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
3/4/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Plzen55%
×Draw23%
Sigma Olomouc22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.81
Sigma Olomouc
1.07

Plzen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 119 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.26
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Plzen
0.89
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
78%
Plzen or Sigma Olomouc
77%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
45%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
31%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
84%
Plzen 2+ goals
54%
Plzen 3+ goals
27%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
66%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
29%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
71%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Plzen scores more
55%
level
23%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
22%

Plzen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc

Plzen and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.