Plzen 3–1 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sigma Olomouc

J. Kovařík 90+4'

J. Kopic 72'

J. Kaymba 40'

J. Plšek 34' (pen)

7/13/2019

Czech Liga · Round 1Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plzen56%

×Draw21%

Sigma Olomouc23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.27

Plzen

2.08

Sigma Olomouc

1.27

Plzen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.17

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Plzen

2.17

Sigma Olomouc

1.23

allows per match

Plzen

1.30

Sigma Olomouc

1.98

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.13scores more

Sigma Olomouc+0.44scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

77%

Plzen or Sigma Olomouc

79%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

44%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

33%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

87%

Plzen 2+ goals

61%

Plzen 3+ goals

34%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

72%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

36%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

71%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.17 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.23 + Plzen defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Plzen scores more

56%

level

21%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

23%

Plzen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Jan Sterba

34'

L. Pernica← L. Hejda

34'

J. PlšekPenalty

39'

40'

48'

51'

54'

59'

Joel Ngandu Kayamba

66'

70'

70'

70'

72'

78'

T. Chorý← M. Krmenčík

81'

88'

90'

90+4'

Statistics

PlzenSigma

Overview

6Corners4

Discipline

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1