Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
Preview
13:00
Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
10/10/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Doosan Arena
Big match
58%
Plzen
model favours
58%22%20%

Mlada Boleslav have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Plzen58%
×Draw22%
Mlada Boleslav20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.94
Mlada Boleslav
1.06

Plzen creates 83% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 120 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.26
Mlada Boleslav
1.23

allows per match

Plzen
0.89
Mlada Boleslav
1.62

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Mlada Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
80%
Plzen or Mlada Boleslav
78%
Draw or Mlada Boleslav
42%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
34%
Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
86%
Plzen 2+ goals
58%
Plzen 3+ goals
30%
Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
65%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
29%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
74%
Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Plzen scores more
58%
level
22%
Mlada Boleslav scores more
20%

Plzen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plzen have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Mlada Boleslav fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Plzen
Possession-dominant
Mlada Boleslav
Possession-dominant
53%Possession54%
77%Pass accuracy78%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap10.2
1.81xG1.69
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlzenMlada Boleslav

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 40%
2–15–02–01–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plzen
WLDDW
Boleslav
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plzen host Mlada Boleslav

October 10, 2026: Plzen take on Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plzen host Mlada Boleslav at Doosan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.