Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plzen vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
Preview
14:00
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
1/30/2027Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 19Doosan Arena
Big match
65%
Plzen
model favours
65%19%16%

Hradec Králové have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Plzen65%
×Draw19%
Hradec Králové16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.28
Hradec Králové
1.03

Plzen creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Hradec Králové
0.86

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Hradec Králové
2.34

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
84%
Plzen or Hradec Králové
81%
Draw or Hradec Králové
35%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
42%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
90%
Plzen 2+ goals
66%
Plzen 3+ goals
39%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
64%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
28%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
80%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.28

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plzen scores more
65%
level
19%
Hradec Králové scores more
16%

Plzen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hradec Králové win just 35% against the top half (vs 60% against the bottom)
  • Hradec Králové outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plzen
Possession-dominant
Hradec Králové
Balanced
53%Possession39%
77%Pass accuracy70%
11.2Shots7.4
1.81xGBiggest gap1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlzenHradec Králové

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Plzen
3
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 60%
3–13–03–31–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plzen
WLDDW
Králové
DWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plzen face Hradec Králové (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga returns with Plzen hosting Hradec Králové. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Plzen host Hradec Králové at Doosan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.