Plymouth vs Sheffield Wednesday

Plymouth

Preview

15:00

Sheffield Wednesday

2/27/2027

League One · Round 33Home Park

Big match

40%

Plymouth

model favours

40%26%34%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Plymouth40%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Wednesday34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Plymouth

1.38

Sheffield Wednesday

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 53 away

1.55

creates per match

1.30

1.24

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Sheffield Wednesday

1.30

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

66%

Plymouth or Sheffield Wednesday

74%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

60%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

18%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

75%

Plymouth 2+ goals

40%

Plymouth 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

36%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

53%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Plymouth scores more

40%

level

26%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

34%

Plymouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
Plymouth have won 5 in a row
Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches
Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches
72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Plymouth

Attack-heavy

Sheffield Wednesday

Balanced

49%Possession50%

68%Pass accuracy69%

13.4ShotsBiggest gap12.8

2.12xG—

PlymouthSheffield Wednesday

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3

Plymouth

0

Draws

5

Sheffield Wednesday

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 25%

0–30–40–13–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Plymouth

WWWWW

Wednesday

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff