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Plymouth vs Notts County — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
Notts County
Notts County
3/29/2027League OneLeague One · Round 38Home Park
42%
Plymouth
model favours
42%26%31%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Plymouth42%
×Draw26%
Notts County31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.42
Notts County
1.18

Plymouth creates 20% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 18 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.55
Notts County
1.11

allows per match

Plymouth
1.24
Notts County
1.28

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
69%
Plymouth or Notts County
74%
Draw or Notts County
58%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
20%
Notts County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
76%
Plymouth 2+ goals
41%
Plymouth 3+ goals
17%
Notts County 1+ goals
69%
Notts County 2+ goals
33%
Notts County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
58%
Notts County (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Notts County attack 1.11 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plymouth scores more
42%
level
26%
Notts County scores more
31%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Notts County score first in only 8% of matches
  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
County
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth face Notts County (League One)

League One returns with Plymouth hosting Notts County. Match starts March 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Plymouth host Notts County at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.