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Plymouth vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
10/27/2020League OneLeague One · Round 9Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth45%
×Draw22%
Doncaster34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.99
Doncaster
1.71

Plymouth creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.51
Doncaster
1.95

allows per match

Plymouth
1.47
Doncaster
1.47

finishing

Plymouth-0.80scores less
Doncaster-0.80scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
66%
Plymouth or Doncaster
78%
Draw or Doncaster
55%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
25%
Doncaster wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
86%
Plymouth 2+ goals
59%
Plymouth 3+ goals
32%
Doncaster 1+ goals
82%
Doncaster 2+ goals
51%
Doncaster 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
57%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.51 + Doncaster defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.99

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Plymouth defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plymouth scores more
45%
level
22%
Doncaster scores more
34%

Plymouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Doncaster

Plymouth beat Doncaster 2-1 in League One on October 27, 2020.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.