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Plymouth vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
9/26/2026League OneLeague One · Round 8Home Park
Big match
53%
Plymouth
model favours
53%22%25%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Plymouth53%
×Draw22%
Burton Albion25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.96
Burton Albion
1.29

Plymouth creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.28
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Plymouth
1.25
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
75%
Plymouth or Burton Albion
78%
Draw or Burton Albion
47%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
31%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
86%
Plymouth 2+ goals
58%
Plymouth 3+ goals
31%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
37%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
68%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plymouth scores more
53%
level
22%
Burton Albion scores more
25%

Plymouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy64%
13.4Shots10.2
2.12xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Plymouth
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
3–04–01–02–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth host Burton Albion

September 26, 2026: Plymouth take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plymouth host Burton Albion at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.