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Plymouth vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
B. Moore 47'
L. Jephcott 25'
10/10/2020League OneLeague One · Round 5Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth53%
×Draw22%
Burton Albion25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.96
Burton Albion
1.27

Plymouth creates 54% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.28
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Plymouth
1.25
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
75%
Plymouth or Burton Albion
78%
Draw or Burton Albion
47%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
31%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
86%
Plymouth 2+ goals
58%
Plymouth 3+ goals
31%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
36%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
68%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plymouth scores more
53%
level
22%
Burton Albion scores more
25%

Plymouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. CooperPlymouthPlymouth · G
7.7

Match Events

13'
K. Wallace← J. Brayford
25'
L. Jephcott↳ C. Grant
46'
C. Daniel← M. Bostwick
47'
B. Moore↳ F. Nouble
58'
Kane Hemmings
63'
Kelland Watts
67'
J. Edwards← G. Cooper
71'
Niall Canavan
74'
B. Reeves← C. Grant
76'
S. Lawless← I. Vassilev
79'
D. Telford← L. Jephcott
83'
Colin Daniel

Possession

50%Plymouth

Shots

13Plymouth

Pass accuracy

49%Plymouth

Statistics

PlymouthBurton
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots11
7Corners3
7Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target7
2Blocked1
7Inside Box5
6Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
442Total Passes426
332Accurate Passes331
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

Plymouth beat Burton Albion 2-0 in League One on October 10, 2020.

Goals: L. Jephcott (25'), B. Moore (47').

Plymouth controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.