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Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
10/10/2026League OneLeague One · Round 10Home Park
Big match
59%
Plymouth
model favours
59%20%20%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Plymouth59%
×Draw20%
AFC Wimbledon20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.19

Plymouth creates 82% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.38
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

allows per match

Plymouth
1.28
AFC Wimbledon
1.96

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less
AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
80%
Plymouth or AFC Wimbledon
80%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
41%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
37%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
89%
Plymouth 2+ goals
64%
Plymouth 3+ goals
36%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
70%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
33%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
75%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.17

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plymouth scores more
59%
level
20%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
20%

Plymouth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Plymouth sit 8, AFC Wimbledon 19 in the table
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
49%Possession47%
68%Pass accuracy68%
13.5Shots10.6
2.16xGBiggest gap1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthAFC Wimbledon

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
3–11–22–01–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Wimbledon
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth host AFC Wimbledon

October 10, 2026: Plymouth take on AFC Wimbledon in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plymouth host AFC Wimbledon at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.