Plymouth 1–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

F. Ladapo 75'

10/6/2018

League One · Round 12Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth59%

×Draw21%

AFC Wimbledon20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.16

Plymouth

2.10

AFC Wimbledon

1.16

Plymouth creates 81% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.28

creates per match

1.07

1.25

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

AFC Wimbledon

1.92

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

AFC Wimbledon+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

80%

Plymouth or AFC Wimbledon

79%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

41%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

36%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

88%

Plymouth 2+ goals

62%

Plymouth 3+ goals

35%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

69%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

32%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

74%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.10

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plymouth scores more

59%

level

21%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

20%

Plymouth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

75'

80'

83'

83'

A. Wordsworth← A. Barcham

90'

Ben Purrington

Plymouth

AFC

24

7

26

4

3

2

▼

Watson

14

Trotter

19

Soares

17

▼

10

39

1

4

24

5

23

22

8

13

10

A

Carey

11

Lameiras

19

⚽

Ladapo

Manager: D. Adams

Plymouth substitutes

6Ness16Grant17Ainsworth18Dyson20Wylde21Letheren29Fletcher

Manager: N. Ardley

83'▲K. Appiah←▼T. Watson

83'▲A. Wordsworth←▼A. Barcham

AFC Wimbledon substitutes

9Appiah40Wordsworth1King5Nightingale8Hartigan11Pinnock12Garratt