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Plymouth Parkway vs Havant & Wville — League #60 2026

Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway
Preview
14:00
Havant & Wville
Havant & Wville
8/22/2026League #60League #60 · Round 4
48%
Plymouth Parkway
model favours
48%29%23%

Plymouth Parkway and Havant & Wville have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plymouth Parkway48%
×Draw29%
Havant & Wville23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth Parkway
1.29
Havant & Wville
0.79

Plymouth Parkway creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Plymouth Parkway
1.33
Havant & Wville
1.25

allows per match

Plymouth Parkway
0.33
Havant & Wville
1.25

finishing

Plymouth Parkway+0.00on par
Havant & Wville+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Parkway ↓

Havant & Wville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Plymouth Parkway or draw
77%
Plymouth Parkway or Havant & Wville
71%
Draw or Havant & Wville
52%

Winning margin

Plymouth Parkway wins by 2+
22%
Havant & Wville wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Plymouth Parkway 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth Parkway 2+ goals
37%
Plymouth Parkway 3+ goals
14%
Havant & Wville 1+ goals
55%
Havant & Wville 2+ goals
19%
Havant & Wville 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Parkway (draw refunded)
68%
Havant & Wville (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Parkway at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Havant & Wville away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Parkway attack 1.33 + Havant & Wville defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Havant & Wville attack 1.25 + Plymouth Parkway defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Plymouth Parkway scores more
48%
level
29%
Havant & Wville scores more
23%

Plymouth Parkway at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth Parkway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Parkway
LWDWW
Wville
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth Parkway host Havant & Wville

August 22, 2026: Plymouth Parkway take on Havant & Wville in League #60. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.