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Plymouth Parkway vs Gloucester City — League #60 2026

Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway
Preview
19:45
Gloucester City
Gloucester City
10/27/2026League #60League #60 · Round 15
64%
Plymouth Parkway
model favours
64%21%15%

Plymouth Parkway sit 5, Gloucester City 19 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plymouth Parkway64%
×Draw21%
Gloucester City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth Parkway
1.92
Gloucester City
0.79

Plymouth Parkway creates 143% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Plymouth Parkway
1.33
Gloucester City
1.25

allows per match

Plymouth Parkway
0.33
Gloucester City
2.50

finishing

Plymouth Parkway+0.00on par
Gloucester City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Parkway ↓

Gloucester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth Parkway or draw
85%
Plymouth Parkway or Gloucester City
79%
Draw or Gloucester City
36%

Winning margin

Plymouth Parkway wins by 2+
39%
Gloucester City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Plymouth Parkway 1+ goals
85%
Plymouth Parkway 2+ goals
57%
Plymouth Parkway 3+ goals
30%
Gloucester City 1+ goals
55%
Gloucester City 2+ goals
19%
Gloucester City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Parkway (draw refunded)
81%
Gloucester City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Parkway at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Gloucester City away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Parkway attack 1.33 + Gloucester City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gloucester City attack 1.25 + Plymouth Parkway defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Plymouth Parkway scores more
64%
level
21%
Gloucester City scores more
15%

Plymouth Parkway at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Plymouth Parkway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth Parkway and Gloucester City have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Parkway
LWDWW
City
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth Parkway face Gloucester City (League #60)

League #60 returns with Plymouth Parkway hosting Gloucester City. Match starts October 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.