Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town

Plymouth Parkway

Preview

15:00

Chertsey Town

11/7/2026

League #60 · Round 17

75%

Plymouth Parkway

model favours

75%20%5%

Plymouth Parkway and Chertsey Town have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

66%

under 2.5 goals

21%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plymouth Parkway75%

×Draw20%

Chertsey Town5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plymouth ParkwayExpected goals in this matchChertsey Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.29

Plymouth Parkway

1.79

Chertsey Town

0.29

Plymouth Parkway creates 517% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.25

0.33

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Plymouth Parkway

1.33

Chertsey Town

0.25

allows per match

Plymouth Parkway

0.33

Chertsey Town

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth Parkway+0.00on par

Chertsey Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Parkway ↓

Chertsey Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plymouth Parkway or draw

95%

Plymouth Parkway or Chertsey Town

80%

Draw or Chertsey Town

25%

Winning margin

Plymouth Parkway wins by 2+

46%

Chertsey Town wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Plymouth Parkway 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth Parkway 2+ goals

53%

Plymouth Parkway 3+ goals

26%

Chertsey Town 1+ goals

25%

Chertsey Town 2+ goals

3%

Chertsey Town 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Parkway (draw refunded)

93%

Chertsey Town (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Parkway at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Chertsey Town away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Parkway attack 1.33 + Chertsey Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Chertsey Town attack 0.25 + Plymouth Parkway defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Plymouth Parkway scores more

75%

level

20%

Chertsey Town scores more

5%

Plymouth Parkway at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Plymouth Parkway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Parkway

LWDWW

Town

WLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff