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Plus Ultra vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Muleño
Muleño
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra35%
×Draw26%
Muleño40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.29
Muleño
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 95 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
60%
Plus Ultra or Muleño
74%
Draw or Muleño
65%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
15%
Muleño wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
72%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
37%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
14%
Muleño 1+ goals
75%
Muleño 2+ goals
41%
Muleño 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
47%
Muleño (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.29

Muleño attack 0.99 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
35%
level
26%
Muleño scores more
40%

Muleño at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs Muleño

Plus Ultra beat Muleño 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.