Plaza Colonia 0–0 Boston River: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Boston River

6/14/2022

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 1Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Plaza Colonia38%

×Draw29%

Boston River33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.04

Plaza Colonia

1.15

Boston River

1.04

Plaza Colonia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 83 away

1.02

creates per match

1.01

1.06

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.02

Boston River

1.01

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

1.06

Boston River

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

67%

Plaza Colonia or Boston River

71%

Draw or Boston River

62%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

16%

Boston River wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

68%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

32%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

11%

Boston River 1+ goals

65%

Boston River 2+ goals

28%

Boston River 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

54%

Boston River (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.02 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Boston River attack 1.01 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

38%

level

29%

Boston River scores more

33%

Plaza Colonia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

48'

48'

58'

66'

67'

Álvaro López← Alexander Machado

67'

Emiliano Rodriguez← Agustin Rodriguez

68'

Leandro Suhr← Álvaro Fernández

68'

Barrandeguy← Martín Jourdan

76'

Nicolas Dibble← Daniel Bahia

83'

Esteban Rodríguez← José Agustin Peréz

83'

Vitor Hugo Vitão← Facundo Kidd Álvarez

86'

Santiago Corbo

90+5'

Santiago Mederos

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PlazaBoston

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots11

4Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target6

4Off Target4

1Blocked1

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2