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Plaza Amador vs UMECIT — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
Preview
23:15
UMECIT
UMECIT
8/23/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 5
Big match
46%
Plaza Amador
model favours
46%28%26%

Plaza Amador score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Plaza Amador46%
×Draw28%
UMECIT26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.31
UMECIT
0.90

Plaza Amador creates 46% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 57 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
UMECIT
0.88

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
UMECIT
1.28

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
UMECIT+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

UMECIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
74%
Plaza Amador or UMECIT
72%
Draw or UMECIT
54%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
21%
UMECIT wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
73%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
38%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
14%
UMECIT 1+ goals
59%
UMECIT 2+ goals
23%
UMECIT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
64%
UMECIT (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

UMECIT away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + UMECIT defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

UMECIT attack 0.88 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
46%
level
28%
UMECIT scores more
26%

Plaza Amador at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plaza Amador are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Plaza Amador 1 vs UMECIT 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amador
DWDWD
UMECIT
LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plaza Amador vs UMECIT — Match Preview

Plaza Amador face UMECIT on August 23, 2026 in this Liga Panameña de Fútbol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.