Plaza Amador 0–0 Sporting San Miguelito

Plaza Amador

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting San Miguelito

5/13/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Plaza Amador41%

×Draw30%

Sporting San Miguelito29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza AmadorExpected goals in this matchSporting San Miguelito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.93

Plaza Amador

1.17

Sporting San Miguelito

0.93

Plaza Amador creates 26% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 132 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

0.92

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Plaza Amador

1.35

Sporting San Miguelito

0.94

allows per match

Plaza Amador

0.92

Sporting San Miguelito

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Sporting San Miguelito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw

71%

Plaza Amador or Sporting San Miguelito

70%

Draw or Sporting San Miguelito

59%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+

18%

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals

69%

Plaza Amador 2+ goals

33%

Plaza Amador 3+ goals

11%

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals

61%

Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals

24%

Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Plaza Amador scores more

41%

level

30%

Sporting San Miguelito scores more

29%

Plaza Amador at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff