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Plaza Amador vs Herrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Herrera
Herrera
3/12/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Estadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Plaza Amador49%
×Draw26%
Herrera24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.48
Herrera
0.95

Plaza Amador creates 56% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
Herrera
0.97

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
Herrera
1.60

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Herrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
76%
Plaza Amador or Herrera
74%
Draw or Herrera
51%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
25%
Herrera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
77%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
43%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
19%
Herrera 1+ goals
61%
Herrera 2+ goals
25%
Herrera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
67%
Herrera (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Herrera attack 0.97 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
49%
level
26%
Herrera scores more
24%

Plaza Amador at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plaza Amador vs Herrera

Herrera beat Plaza Amador 2-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Andes in San Miguelito.