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Plaza Amador vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
Preview
01:30
Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
10/4/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11
Big match
45%
Plaza Amador
model favours
45%28%27%

Plaza Amador score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Plaza Amador45%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Universitario27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.34
Deportivo Universitario
0.97

Plaza Amador creates 38% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 129 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
Deportivo Universitario
1.01

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
Deportivo Universitario
1.33

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Deportivo Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
73%
Plaza Amador or Deportivo Universitario
72%
Draw or Deportivo Universitario
55%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
74%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
39%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.01 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
45%
level
28%
Deportivo Universitario scores more
27%

Plaza Amador at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plaza Amador are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amador
DWDWD
Universitario
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plaza Amador host Deportivo Universitario

October 4, 2026: Plaza Amador take on Deportivo Universitario in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.