Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plaza Amador vs Costa del Este — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
CANC
00:00
Costa del Este
Costa del Este
3/14/2020Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Plaza Amador43%
×Draw28%
Costa del Este28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.27
Costa del Este
0.97

Plaza Amador creates 31% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 111 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
Costa del Este
1.02

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
Costa del Este
1.18

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Costa del Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
72%
Plaza Amador or Costa del Este
72%
Draw or Costa del Este
57%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
19%
Costa del Este wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
72%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
36%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
14%
Costa del Este 1+ goals
62%
Costa del Este 2+ goals
25%
Costa del Este 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
60%
Costa del Este (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
43%
level
28%
Costa del Este scores more
28%

Plaza Amador at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plaza Amador host Costa del Este

March 14, 2020: Plaza Amador take on Costa del Este in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plaza Amador host Costa del Este at Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.