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Plaza Amador vs CD Arabe Unido — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
Preview
01:30
CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido
10/11/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 12
Big match
43%
Plaza Amador
model favours
43%29%28%

Plaza Amador score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Plaza Amador43%
×Draw29%
CD Arabe Unido28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.24
CD Arabe Unido
0.94

Plaza Amador creates 32% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 130 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
CD Arabe Unido
0.95

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
CD Arabe Unido
1.12

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

CD Arabe Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
72%
Plaza Amador or CD Arabe Unido
71%
Draw or CD Arabe Unido
57%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
19%
CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
71%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
35%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
13%
CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals
61%
CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals
24%
CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
61%
CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

CD Arabe Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + CD Arabe Unido defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

CD Arabe Unido attack 0.95 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
43%
level
29%
CD Arabe Unido scores more
28%

Plaza Amador at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plaza Amador are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Plaza Amador have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Plaza Amador win just 40% against the top half (vs 72% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amador
DWDWD
Unido
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plaza Amador host CD Arabe Unido

October 11, 2026: Plaza Amador take on CD Arabe Unido in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.