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Platinum vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Platinum
Platinum
FT
3 – 1
Yadah
Yadah
10/12/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 26Mandava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Platinum51%
×Draw29%
Yadah20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platinum
1.29
Yadah
0.69

Platinum creates 87% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 85 away

creates per match

Platinum
1.24
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Platinum
0.57
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Platinum+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platinum ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Platinum or draw
80%
Platinum or Yadah
71%
Draw or Yadah
49%

Winning margin

Platinum wins by 2+
24%
Yadah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Platinum 1+ goals
72%
Platinum 2+ goals
37%
Platinum 3+ goals
14%
Yadah 1+ goals
50%
Yadah 2+ goals
15%
Yadah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Platinum (draw refunded)
72%
Yadah (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platinum at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.57 · 95 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platinum attack 1.24 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Yadah attack 0.82 + Platinum defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Platinum scores more
51%
level
29%
Yadah scores more
20%

Platinum at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platinum vs Yadah

Platinum beat Yadah 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Mandava Stadium in Zvishavane.