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Platges Calvià vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santanyí
Santanyí
11/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Platges Calvià48%
×Draw26%
Santanyí26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.47
Santanyí
1.00

Platges Calvià creates 47% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 113 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
74%
Platges Calvià or Santanyí
74%
Draw or Santanyí
52%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
24%
Santanyí wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
77%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
43%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
18%
Santanyí 1+ goals
63%
Santanyí 2+ goals
26%
Santanyí 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
65%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
48%
level
26%
Santanyí scores more
26%

Platges Calvià at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Platges Calvià 1–0 Santanyí

Platges Calvià beat Santanyí 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.