Platges Calvià 0–2 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Platges Calvià

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mercadal

Elliot Galan 81' (pen)

Y. Achkoukar 39'

9/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Platges Calvià52%

×Draw26%

Mercadal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platges CalviàExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.83

Platges Calvià

1.48

Mercadal

0.83

Platges Calvià creates 78% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 86 away

1.52

creates per match

0.84

0.83

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Platges Calvià

1.52

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Platges Calvià

0.83

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Mercadal →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw

79%

Platges Calvià or Mercadal

74%

Draw or Mercadal

48%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

27%

Mercadal wins by 2+

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

77%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

43%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

19%

Mercadal 1+ goals

56%

Mercadal 2+ goals

20%

Mercadal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

71%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Platges Calvià scores more

52%

level

26%

Mercadal scores more

21%

Platges Calvià at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Y. Achkoukar

46'

Marc Matas← S. Riveron

46'

Dani Bardolet← Lluis Ballester

52'

Adrián Fortuny← Eric Barber

52'

Guillem Martí← Toni Sintes

58'

Pedro Delgado← Dani Lozano

58'

Nacho Dosil← Josemi

71'

Elliot Galan← David Camps

71'

Izan Canet← Jose Marqués

74'

Edu Bailén← Juan Pajuelo

74'

Capó← Biel Villalonga

81'

Elliot GalanPenalty

Platges

Mercadal

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Martinez

46'▲Marc Matas←▼S. Riveron

46'▲Dani Bardolet←▼Lluis Ballester

58'▲Pedro Delgado←▼Dani Lozano

58'▲Nacho Dosil←▼Josemi

74'▲Edu Bailén←▼Juan Pajuelo

Platges Calvià substitutes

MatasBardoletDelgadoDosilBailén

Manager: Pedro Vadell

52'▲Adrián Fortuny←▼Eric Barber

52'▲Guillem Martí←▼Toni Sintes

71'▲Elliot Galan←▼David Camps

71'▲Izan Canet←▼Jose Marqués

74'▲Capó←▼Biel Villalonga

Mercadal substitutes

FortunyMartíGalanCanetCapó

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Mercadal

Mercadal beat Platges Calvià 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: Y. Achkoukar (39'), Elliot Galan (81' pen).

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf in Mallorca.

Platges Calvià vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Mercadal