Platense 3–2 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

I. Schor 90+3'

F. Curuchet 60'

M. Tissera 47'

E. Martínez 57'

J. Lucero 51'

12/10/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 25Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Platense39%

×Draw33%

Velez Sarsfield29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.81

Platense

1.00

Velez Sarsfield

0.81

Platense creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.01

creates per match

0.93

0.68

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Velez Sarsfield

0.93

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Velez Sarsfield

1.00

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Velez Sarsfield-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw

71%

Platense or Velez Sarsfield

67%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

15%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

63%

Platense 2+ goals

26%

Platense 3+ goals

8%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

56%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

19%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

58%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.93 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more

39%

level

33%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

29%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

I. Schor

Platense · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

27'

46'

47'

51'

57'

E. Martínez↳ F. Mancuello

60'

F. Curuchet↳ I. Gómez

62'

F. Baldassarra← N. Bertolo

68'

T. Almada← L. Pratto

73'

M. Brizuela← E. Martínez

74'

L. Orellano← A. Bouzat

81'

B. Mansilla← H. Tijanovich

81'

I. Schor← F. Curuchet

81'

T. Sandoval← M. Tissera

84'

C. Tarragona← J. Lucero

90'

M. Bogado← I. Gómez

90+3'

I. Schor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseVelez

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots7

6Corners8

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

9On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

13Inside Box3

2Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

313Total Passes524

230Accurate Passes440

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 3–2 Velez Sarsfield

Platense beat Velez Sarsfield 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 10, 2021.

Goals: M. Tissera (47'), J. Lucero (51'), E. Martínez (57'), F. Curuchet (60'), I. Schor (90+3').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Platense vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 3–2 Velez Sarsfield