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Platense vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
B. Mansilla 68'
F. Di Santo 61'
9/4/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense39%
×Draw34%
San Lorenzo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
0.96
San Lorenzo
0.76

Platense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
San Lorenzo
0.84

allows per match

Platense
0.68
San Lorenzo
0.90

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
San Lorenzo+0.10scores more

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw
72%
Platense or San Lorenzo
66%
Draw or San Lorenzo
61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
14%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
62%
Platense 2+ goals
25%
Platense 3+ goals
7%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
53%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
18%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
58%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.90 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + San Lorenzo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

San Lorenzo attack 0.84 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more
39%
level
34%
San Lorenzo scores more
28%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. Di SantoSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · F
7.6

Match Events

28'
Siro Rosane
44'
Facundo Cardozo
52'
Marcelo Herrera
60'
A. Sabella← E. Cerutti
61'
F. Di Santo
65'
F. Curuchet← I. Gómez
68'
B. Mansilla↳ F. Curuchet
70'
J. Elías← M. Herrera
70'
Y. Gordillo← N. Ortigoza
80'
A. Hausch← S. Cabral
83'
P. Gerzel← N. Bertolo
83'
T. Sandoval← M. Tissera
90+3'
Nicolas Ezequiel Fernandez Mercau
90+2'
Nicolás Fernández

Possession

44%Platense

Shots

11Platense

Pass accuracy

50%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseSan
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots12
3Corners8
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target5
4Off Target5
4Blocked2
3Inside Box7
8Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
343Total Passes426
252Accurate Passes311
73%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Platense vs San Lorenzo

Platense and San Lorenzo drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 4, 2021.

Goals: F. Di Santo (61'), B. Mansilla (68').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.