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Platense vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
M. Bogado 45+2' (pen)
F. Curuchet 25'
F. Troyansky 83'
G. Rojas 75'
A. Sabella 30'
F. Gattoni 13'
4/10/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense39%
×Draw34%
San Lorenzo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
0.96
San Lorenzo
0.76

Platense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
San Lorenzo
0.84

allows per match

Platense
0.68
San Lorenzo
0.90

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
San Lorenzo+0.10scores more

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw
72%
Platense or San Lorenzo
66%
Draw or San Lorenzo
61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
14%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
62%
Platense 2+ goals
25%
Platense 3+ goals
7%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
53%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
18%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
58%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.90 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + San Lorenzo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

San Lorenzo attack 0.84 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more
39%
level
34%
San Lorenzo scores more
28%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. BogadoPlatensePlatense · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
F. Gattoni↳ A. Donatti
25'
F. Curuchet↳ F. Baldassarra
28'
Óscar Romero
30'
A. Sabella↳ Nicolás Emanuel Fernández
40'
Mauro Bogado
40'
Gino Peruzzi
45+2'
M. BogadoPenalty
66'
T. Palacios← M. Tissera
70'
Federico Gattoni
71'
J. Ramírez← A. Sabella
75'
G. Rojas↳ Nicolás Emanuel Fernández
77'
I. Puleio← M. Bogado
78'
J. Pereyra← P. Gerzel
82'
F. Troyansky← F. Di Santo
82'
L. Melano← Á. Romero
83'
F. Troyansky↳ G. Rojas
89'
Luciano Recalde
89'
S. Cabral← Nicolás Emanuel Fernández
89'
F. Coloccini← Ó. Romero
90+4'
Gabriel Rojas

Possession

45%Platense

Shots

14Platense

Pass accuracy

49%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseSan
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots15
7Corners5
13Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots15
4On Target8
4Off Target2
6Blocked5
6Inside Box10
8Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
360Total Passes426
283Accurate Passes343
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 2–4 San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo beat Platense 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 10, 2021.

Goals: F. Gattoni (13'), F. Curuchet (25'), A. Sabella (30'), M. Bogado (45+2' pen), G. Rojas (75'), F. Troyansky (83').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.