Platense 0–1 Lanus: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lanus

M. Esquivel 72'

6/30/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 22Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Platense45%

×Draw31%

Lanus24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.76

Platense

1.16

Lanus

0.76

Platense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.01

creates per match

0.84

0.68

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Lanus

0.84

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Lanus

1.31

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Lanus+0.02on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw

76%

Platense or Lanus

69%

Draw or Lanus

55%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

Lanus wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

69%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Lanus 1+ goals

53%

Lanus 2+ goals

18%

Lanus 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

65%

Lanus (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.31 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Lanus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lanus attack 0.84 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platense scores more

45%

level

31%

Lanus scores more

24%

Platense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Esquivel

Lanus · M

8.2

Match Events

30'

Pedro de la VegaGoal cancelled

50'

Ronaldo MartinezGoal cancelled

72'

M. Esquivel↳ P. de la Vega

73'

N. Servetto← M. Quiroga

81'

L. Acosta← J. Sand

82'

F. Baldassarra← N. Castro

82'

I. Schor← S. Marcich

82'

F. Pérez← L. Boggio

90'

M. Zalazar← V. Taborda

90+3'

F. Orozco← P. de la Vega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseLanus

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots7

5Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots7

0On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked0

2Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

389Total Passes379

288Accurate Passes268

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Offsides5