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Platense vs Lanus — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lanus
Lanus
G. Suso 86'
J. Sand 21'
10/25/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 27Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Platense45%
×Draw31%
Lanus24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.16
Lanus
0.76

Platense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Lanus
0.84

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Lanus
1.31

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Lanus+0.02on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw
76%
Platense or Lanus
69%
Draw or Lanus
55%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
19%
Lanus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
69%
Platense 2+ goals
32%
Platense 3+ goals
11%
Lanus 1+ goals
53%
Lanus 2+ goals
18%
Lanus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
65%
Lanus (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.31 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Lanus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lanus attack 0.84 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platense scores more
45%
level
31%
Lanus scores more
24%

Platense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92
J. BenítezPlatensePlatense · F
7.5

Match Events

21'
J. Sand
27'
Matías Pérez
39'
Ayrton Costa
46'
F. Camargo← R. González
46'
J. Esquivel← C. Villalba
60'
M. González← F. Troyansky
63'
Gastón Suso
69'
B. Blando← J. Sand
69'
P. De la Vega← I. Cazal
71'
C. Lattanzio← S. Guerrero
74'
Maximiliano González
79'
G. Bergessio← J. Benítez
79'
B. Barbas← F. Baldassarra
82'
Vicente Taborda
86'
G. Suso↳ B. Barbas
89'
Lautaro Acosta

Possession

59%Platense

Shots

13Platense

Pass accuracy

52%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseLanus
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots8
6Corners1
14Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked0
7Inside Box8
6Outside Box0
Passing
59%Possession41%
469Total Passes324
374Accurate Passes236
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 1–1 Lanus

Platense and Lanus drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 25, 2022.

Goals: J. Sand (21'), G. Suso (86').

Platense controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.