Platense 2–1 Instituto Cordoba: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Instituto Cordoba

C. Tarragona 90'

N. Iribarren 17'

P. Vegetti 52'

4/14/2019

Primera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López (Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Platense40%

×Draw30%

Instituto Cordoba30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.94

Platense

1.14

Instituto Cordoba

0.94

Platense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 72 away

1.17

creates per match

0.92

0.96

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Platense

1.17

Instituto Cordoba

0.92

allows per match

Platense

0.96

Instituto Cordoba

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

70%

Platense or Instituto Cordoba

70%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

60%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

17%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

57%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.17 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.92 + Platense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense scores more

40%

level

30%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

30%

Platense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

N. Iribarren

52'

P. Vegetti

62'

G. Pugliese← J. Bustos

64'

R. Garro← S. Navarro

76'

D. Vega← M. Vega

85'

D. Tonetto← F. Curuchet

85'

F. Affranchino← I. Antonio

89'

M. Pino← M. Bajamich

90'

C. Tarragona

Platense

Instituto

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: F. Ruiz

62'▲G. Pugliese←▼J. Bustos

76'▲D. Vega←▼M. Vega

85'▲D. Tonetto←▼F. Curuchet

Platense substitutes

PuglieseVegaTonettoGallegosDesábatoChivilóBocchino

Manager: C. Zabala

64'▲R. Garro←▼S. Navarro

85'▲F. Affranchino←▼I. Antonio

89'▲M. Pino←▼M. Bajamich

Instituto Cordoba substitutes

GarroAffranchinoPinoYabaléBallariPetruchiCanever