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Platense vs Fuerte San Francisco — Primera Division 2019

Platense
Platense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
2/11/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Platense39%
×Draw27%
Fuerte San Francisco34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.27
Fuerte San Francisco
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

creates per match

Platense
1.04
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

allows per match

Platense
1.38
Fuerte San Francisco
1.51

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platense or draw
66%
Platense or Fuerte San Francisco
73%
Draw or Fuerte San Francisco
61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
17%
Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
72%
Platense 2+ goals
36%
Platense 3+ goals
14%
Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
69%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
32%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
54%
Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.04 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Platense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more
39%
level
27%
Fuerte San Francisco scores more
34%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Platense 3–2 Fuerte San Francisco

Platense beat Fuerte San Francisco 3-2 in Primera Division on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle in Zacatecoluca.