Platense 0–0 Estudiantes L.P.: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

9/4/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 17Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense39%

×Draw33%

Estudiantes L.P.27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.76

Platense

0.98

Estudiantes L.P.

0.76

Platense creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.01

creates per match

0.83

0.68

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Estudiantes L.P.

0.83

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Estudiantes L.P.

0.96

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Estudiantes L.P.+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw

73%

Platense or Estudiantes L.P.

67%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

15%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

62%

Platense 2+ goals

26%

Platense 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

53%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

18%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

59%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.96 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.83 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more

39%

level

33%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

27%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Andújar

Estudiantes L.P. · G

8.0

Match Events

-5'

12'

46'

64'

68'

H. Tijanovich← M. Zárate

69'

Jorge Morel

69'

J. Esquivel← R. Contreras

70'

Mauro Méndez

75'

M. Pellegrino← M. Boselli

75'

F. Zapiola← B. Rollheiser

84'

G. Piñeiro← F. Zuqui

85'

Mateo Pellegrino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseEstudiantes

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots11

4Corners4

10Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target3

8Off Target5

5Blocked3

7Inside Box8

12Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

384Total Passes339

283Accurate Passes238

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0