Platense 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

N. Servetto 38'

3/18/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 8Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Platense44%

×Draw29%

Defensa Y Justicia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.90

Platense

1.23

Defensa Y Justicia

0.90

Platense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

1.01

creates per match

1.12

0.68

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Defensa Y Justicia

1.12

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Defensa Y Justicia

1.46

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Defensa Y Justicia-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

73%

Platense or Defensa Y Justicia

71%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

56%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

71%

Platense 2+ goals

35%

Platense 3+ goals

13%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

59%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

23%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

62%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.46 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.12 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Platense scores more

44%

level

29%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

27%

Platense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Macagno

Platense · G

7.7

Match Events

38'

N. Servetto↳ R. Martínez

41'

F. Díaz← N. Castro

42'

Marco Pellegrino

46'

G. Castellani← R. Bogarín

54'

56'

59'

66'

68'

G. Valdivia← R. Martínez

74'

D. Cáceres← A. Soto

74'

A. Ríos← J. López

78'

A. Alonso← I. Rossi

78'

N. Zeineddin← N. Servetto

79'

Santiago Solari

80'

G. Togni← S. Solari

85'

Gastón TogniGoal cancelled

87'

Vicente Taborda

88'

J. Miritello← K. Gutiérrez

90+7'

Nicolás Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseDefensa

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots16

7Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots16

3On Target3

7Off Target5

6Blocked8

14Inside Box6

2Outside Box10

Passing

38%Possession62%

219Total Passes365

127Accurate Passes268

58%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3