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Platense vs Coquimbo Unido — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Platense
Platense
Preview
20:00
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
8/11/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16
Big match
40%
Platense
model favours
40%29%31%

Coquimbo Unido score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Platense40%
×Draw29%
Coquimbo Unido31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.17
Coquimbo Unido
1.00

Platense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Platense
1.00
Coquimbo Unido
0.67

allows per match

Platense
1.33
Coquimbo Unido
1.33

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Platense or draw
69%
Platense or Coquimbo Unido
71%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
60%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
17%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
69%
Platense 2+ goals
33%
Platense 3+ goals
11%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
63%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
26%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
56%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.00 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Coquimbo Unido attack 0.67 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense scores more
40%
level
29%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
31%

Platense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Platense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 46% of Coquimbo Unido’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Platense 2 vs Coquimbo Unido 1
  • Platense and Coquimbo Unido have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Platense
WLDDL
Unido
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Platense vs Coquimbo Unido — Match Preview

Platense face Coquimbo Unido on August 11, 2026 in this CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.