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Platense vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
B. Mansilla 77'
G. Florentín 16'
5/3/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense40%
×Draw31%
Argentinos JRS28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.07
Argentinos JRS
0.85

Platense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Argentinos JRS
1.03

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Argentinos JRS
1.13

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Argentinos JRS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw
72%
Platense or Argentinos JRS
69%
Draw or Argentinos JRS
60%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
16%
Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
66%
Platense 2+ goals
29%
Platense 3+ goals
9%
Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
57%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
21%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
59%
Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense scores more
40%
level
31%
Argentinos JRS scores more
28%

Platense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. VillalbaArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · D
7.5

Match Events

16'
Ivan Gómez
16'
G. Florentín
18'
Haibrany Ruiz Diaz
46'
N. Delgadillo← F. Gonzales
46'
N. Bertolo← I. Gómez
46'
N. Reniero← G. Florentín
53'
L. Gómez← M. Bíttolo
64'
B. Mansilla← G. Bergessio
66'
L. Sánchez← D. Zalazar
69'
Luciano Gómez
77'
B. Mansilla↳ H. Canteros
80'
G. Verón← G. Carabajal
87'
M. Bogado← H. Canteros
87'
N. Morgantini← A. Schott
88'
Kevin Mac Allister
90+5'
Nicolás Delgadillo
90+3'
Miguel Torren

Possession

42%Platense

Shots

10Platense

Pass accuracy

47%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseArgentinos
Overview
42%Possession58%
10Total Shots14
2Corners2
16Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots14
2On Target2
3Off Target9
5Blocked3
4Inside Box5
6Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
340Total Passes472
230Accurate Passes368
68%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 1–1 Argentinos JRS

Platense and Argentinos JRS drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 3, 2022.

Goals: G. Florentín (16'), B. Mansilla (77').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.