Platense FC 4–0 Real Espana: Result & Stats

Platense FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Espana

P. Mencía 86'

G. Rodas 50'

R. Winchester 47'

D. Reyes 45+3'

3/3/2019

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio Excelsior (Puerto Cortés)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Platense FC39%

×Draw26%

Real Espana35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platense FCExpected goals in this matchReal Espana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Platense FC

1.36

Real Espana

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 160 away

1.46

creates per match

1.25

1.32

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Platense FC

1.46

Real Espana

1.25

allows per match

Platense FC

1.32

Real Espana

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par

Real Espana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Real Espana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw

65%

Platense FC or Real Espana

74%

Draw or Real Espana

61%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+

18%

Real Espana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals

74%

Platense FC 2+ goals

39%

Platense FC 3+ goals

16%

Real Espana 1+ goals

72%

Real Espana 2+ goals

37%

Real Espana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)

52%

Real Espana (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Real Espana away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 160 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.46 + Real Espana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Espana attack 1.25 + Platense FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense FC scores more

39%

level

26%

Real Espana scores more

35%

Platense FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

47'

50'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff