Platense FC 0–0 Lobos Upnfm: Result & Stats

Platense FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lobos Upnfm

8/12/2018

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Excelsior (Puerto Cortés)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Platense FC49%

×Draw24%

Lobos Upnfm27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platense FCExpected goals in this matchLobos Upnfm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.15

Platense FC

1.65

Lobos Upnfm

1.15

Platense FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 147 away

1.46

creates per match

0.98

1.32

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Platense FC

1.46

Lobos Upnfm

0.98

allows per match

Platense FC

1.32

Lobos Upnfm

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Lobos Upnfm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw

73%

Platense FC or Lobos Upnfm

76%

Draw or Lobos Upnfm

51%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+

26%

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals

81%

Platense FC 2+ goals

49%

Platense FC 3+ goals

23%

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals

68%

Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals

32%

Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)

65%

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.84 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.46 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.98 + Platense FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Platense FC scores more

49%

level

24%

Lobos Upnfm scores more

27%

Platense FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Montoya← J. Padilla

35'

J. Nieto← K. Arriaga

42'

A. Meléndez← L. Benedith

64'

J. de León← E. Álvarez

65'

K. Peña← J. Pinto

Platense

Lobos

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Martínez

35'▲J. Nieto←▼K. Arriaga

64'▲J. de León←▼E. Álvarez

Platense FC substitutes

NietoLeónMendozaFajardoVargasCastroLobo

Manager: J. Nazar

30'▲R. Montoya←▼J. Padilla

42'▲A. Meléndez←▼L. Benedith

65'▲K. Peña←▼J. Pinto

Lobos Upnfm substitutes

MontoyaMeléndezPeñaUrmenetaReyesPinedaSantos