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Platense FC vs CD Marathon — Liga Nacional 2018

Platense FC
Platense FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CD Marathon
CD Marathon
K. Arriaga 11'
9/9/2018Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 8Estadio Excelsior (Puerto Cortés)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Platense FC40%
×Draw26%
CD Marathon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense FC
1.39
CD Marathon
1.25

Platense FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 159 away

creates per match

Platense FC
1.46
CD Marathon
1.18

allows per match

Platense FC
1.32
CD Marathon
1.31

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par
CD Marathon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

CD Marathon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw
66%
Platense FC or CD Marathon
74%
Draw or CD Marathon
60%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+
19%
CD Marathon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals
75%
Platense FC 2+ goals
40%
Platense FC 3+ goals
16%
CD Marathon 1+ goals
71%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
36%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)
54%
CD Marathon (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

CD Marathon away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.46 + CD Marathon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

CD Marathon attack 1.18 + Platense FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense FC scores more
40%
level
26%
CD Marathon scores more
34%

Platense FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. Arriaga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense FC vs CD Marathon

Platense FC beat CD Marathon 1-0 in Liga Nacional on September 9, 2018.

Goals: K. Arriaga (11').

The match was played at Estadio Excelsior (Puerto Cortés).