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PKKU vs JJK — Ykkönen 2026

PKKU
PKKU
Preview
15:30
JJK
JJK
8/21/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKalevan Urheilupuisto
Big match
48%
PKKU
model favours
48%23%30%

PKKU have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

PKKU48%
×Draw23%
JJK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PKKU
1.86
JJK
1.42

PKKU creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 65 away

creates per match

PKKU
1.72
JJK
1.14

allows per match

PKKU
1.69
JJK
2.00

finishing

PKKU+0.00on par
JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PKKU ↓

JJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PKKU or draw
70%
PKKU or JJK
77%
Draw or JJK
52%

Winning margin

PKKU wins by 2+
26%
JJK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PKKU 1+ goals
84%
PKKU 2+ goals
55%
PKKU 3+ goals
28%
JJK 1+ goals
76%
JJK 2+ goals
41%
JJK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PKKU (draw refunded)
62%
JJK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PKKU at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

JJK away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PKKU attack 1.72 + JJK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

JJK attack 1.14 + PKKU defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PKKU scores more
48%
level
23%
JJK scores more
30%

PKKU at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • JJK score first in only 12% of matches
  • Both teams score in 94% of PKKU’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (81% and 77% over 2.5)
  • 81% of PKKU’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 77% of JJK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • PKKU score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
PKKU
WLDWL
JJK
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PKKU host JJK

August 21, 2026: PKKU take on JJK in Ykkönen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

PKKU host JJK at Kalevan Urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.