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PKKU vs Inter Turku II — Ykkönen 2026

PKKU
PKKU
Preview
15:30
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
8/11/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKalevan Urheilupuisto
45%
PKKU
model favours
45%20%35%

PKKU have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
78%
over 2.5 goals
76%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

PKKU45%
×Draw20%
Inter Turku II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PKKU
2.19
Inter Turku II
1.92

PKKU creates 14% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 21 away

creates per match

PKKU
1.72
Inter Turku II
2.14

allows per match

PKKU
1.69
Inter Turku II
2.67

finishing

PKKU+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PKKU ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

PKKU or draw
65%
PKKU or Inter Turku II
80%
Draw or Inter Turku II
55%

Winning margin

PKKU wins by 2+
26%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

PKKU 1+ goals
89%
PKKU 2+ goals
64%
PKKU 3+ goals
37%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
85%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
57%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

PKKU (draw refunded)
56%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PKKU at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PKKU attack 1.72 + Inter Turku II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Inter Turku II attack 2.14 + PKKU defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PKKU scores more
45%
level
20%
Inter Turku II scores more
35%

PKKU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (81% and 83% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 94% of PKKU’s matches
  • 83% of Inter Turku II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 89% of Inter Turku II’s matches
  • 81% of PKKU’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • PKKU score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
PKKU
WLDWL
II
DLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PKKU vs Inter Turku II — Match Preview

PKKU face Inter Turku II on August 11, 2026 in this Ykkönen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

PKKU host Inter Turku II at Kalevan Urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.